Planning for Incorporating Ancillary Demands in the Next Generation FSUTMS
PI: Siva Srinivasan, Ph.D., University of Florida
The last few years have seen tremendous advances in Florida’s efforts towards advancing its travel-demand modeling practice. The most significant efforts in this direction are in the area of Activity-Based Modeling. These efforts include the acquisition of travel survey data from over 15,000 households in Florida as an add-on the 2008 National Household Travel Survey, the associated processing of the survey data, the ABM implementation efforts for the NFRPM, TBRPM, and SERPM areas, ABM training workshops, and extensive discussions at the MTF meetings and FSUTMS user-group meetings. Efforts on planning a transition of FSUTMS to activity-based paradigm and making it the conceptual standard of the state (in place of the current trip-based standard) is also underway.
However, all the above efforts are directed at a single but substantial component of travel demand – the daily, internal-internal trips of the residents of the region. The total travel demand for any urban region also includes other “ancillary” components such as external travel (IE, EI, and EE), travel of non-residents such as tourists, urban goods movements, and travel generated by special attractors such as airports and universities.
With all the efforts in improving the modeling of residential travel demands using the new ABM paradigm, it is also critical to enhance the forecasting of the ancillary demands so as to improve the overall accuracy of the demand forecasts. Further, even if data limitations might dictate the need to adopt simplistic procedures for modeling ancillary demands, it would be necessary to adapt the modeling procedures to recognize that activity-based methods are being used to generate the residential demands. Specifically, ABMs do not generate productions and attractions when the existing methods to deal with ancillary demands often rely on adding to and adjusting the PA matrices. In light of the above discussions, the intent of this study is to develop a planning document that will guide the enhancements to be made to FSUTMS from the perspective of modeling the ancillary demands.